Transmission loss evaluation based on probabilistic power flow

A simulation method for composite power systems is proposed for the purpose of evaluating the probability distribution function of transmission losses. The method accounts for the uncertainty of the electric load, availability of generating units, nonlinearities in the power flow equations, and major operating practices. The method is based on the following procedure. First, given the probabilistic electric load model, the probability distribution function of the power injection at generation buses is computed by taking into consideration the availability of generating units and economic dispatch practices. Next, transmission losses are expressed as a piecewise linear function of power injections at generation buses. Subsequently, the probability distribution function of transmission losses is computed. Validation of the method was performed via a Monte Carlo simulation. The method was applied to the 24-bus IEEE reliability test system, and the results are validated by comparing it to Monte Carlo simulation results.<
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