Simulations of "The historic Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi flood activity during May 8-10th, 1995" to build a prototype GIS/RS based ERAISA (Environmental Risk Assessment Integrative Systems Approach) for Gulf Coastal states of the United States

The Gulf Coastal states region of United States is prone to the highest national frequency of both severe weather and climate problems accompanied by economic losses (e.g., severe convection, flooding, tropical cyclones, ice storms etc.). A GIS/remote sensing (RS) framework is necessary to properly understand physical processes, investigate cause and affect relationships and develop conceptual models of the behavior of environmental systems. Our goals included focusing on the environmental effects and impacts of heavy rains and flash flooding and finally to produce a prototype GIS/RS Environmental Risk Assessment System (ERAISA) for the region of interest. We selected "The historic Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi flood activity during May 8-10th, 1995" as our study case. The NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to study the effects of warm sea surface temperature anomalies, sea surface pressure and winds on the precipitation characteristics of this event. Mesoscale model simulations are used to forecast and better understand the physics associated with the flood event. Each component is modified to accommodate the detailed study. For the preliminary model run, a doubly nested domain centered over the Central Gulf of Mexico with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km is employed. MM5 is run for each 6 hr period, from the initial storm development-May 8/sup th/ and through May 10/sup th/. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and synoptic data are used for constructing the initial and boundary conditions. The model simulations are compared with radar data for further comparisons and validations. The phenomenon of interest-flooding here is narrowly defined in order to depict, analyze and predict (or manage) environmental dynamics through the use and application of GIS and RS data and technologies. A major goal is to unify our understanding and knowledge of similar historic events into a more comprehensive integrative framework from different disciplines-meteorology, marine and fisheries sciences, environmental sciences etc., and develop a system of Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment for the Gulf Coast, which would be ultimately used for operational use.