On Growth and Forecasting in Electronics

There is general agreement that projections from trend line analysis result in good estimates of long-range growth. Yet the mathematical models currently in vogue do not seem to fit the raw data for electronic products. A new model for product demand that fits quite well is found also to apply to growth in dollar sales if the unit cost of innovative product conforms with the well-known learning curve. The application of the new model to products and services and to corporate sales reveals long- and short-range features in growth patterns which might otherwise remain obscure.