Probabilistic modelling processes of mutual monitoring operators actions for transport systems

The research quantitatively proved, that the popular today the mode for estimating risks in operators actions based on uses of exponential probability distribution function (PDF) of time between mistakes of operators is a rough and unpromising engineering way. Its application deforms very essentially probabilistic estimations of risks. Operator may be a man or special device or their combination. For systems, composed from mutual monitoring operators, deviations of risks may be about hundreds and thousands of percent. The more adequate approach for probabilistic modelling processes for is proposed, including intelligent transportation systems, oil&gas transportation systems, infrastructure etc. The logic structure of operators (as a system) and details of threats, system control, possibilities of mutual monitoring and recovery time for every operator are considered. The results are useful for understanding mutual monitoring effects and rationale of counteraction measures against different “human factor” affects. Effects are demonstrated by examples.