Accurate Analysis of Quality Properties of Software with Observation-Based Markov Chain Refinement

We introduce a tool-supported method for the automated refinement of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) used to assess quality properties of component-based software. Existing research focuses on improving the efficiency of CTMC analysis and on identifying new applications for this analysis. As such, ensuring that the analysis is accurate by using CTMCs that closely model the behaviour of the analysed software has received relatively little attention. Our new method addresses this gap by refining the high-level CTMC model of a component-based software system based on observations of the execution times of its components. Our refinement method reduced analysis errors by 77-90.3% for a service-based system implemented using six public web services from three different providers, improving the accuracy of the analysis and significantly reducing the risk of invalid software engineering decisions.