Estimation of Transmission Reliability Margin using statistical methods and intelligent techniques

In the present scenario of restructured power system, there is necessity for accurate quantification of Available transfer capability (ATC). ATC can be determined appropriately by exact calculation of marginal components of Total transfer capability (TTC). One of the margins we are concerned with is Transmission reliability margin (TRM). Accurate estimation of TRM ensures reliable power transactions and also acts as an indication of congestion management. We have formerly used the ANN technique for estimation of TRM. For comprehensive understanding of estimation techniques, a comparison of intelligent techniques with conventional statistical methods is mandatory. This work inspects ANN technique with the statistical methods of system identification i.e. linear regression analysis, ARMA for their estimation ability.