Healthcare monitoring based on digital transactions at pharmacies: Malaria in Kigali

Epidemiological studies traditionally focus on medical records from hospitals and clinics to monitor disease. However, in a developing country context, not all patients go to a clinic when suffering from an illness; many bypass medical centers and go directly to a pharmacist where they obtain drugs based on the symptoms they present. The study presented here examines how certain medical diseases can be monitored through digital transactions resulting from drug sales. It focuses on purchased drugs linked to cases of malaria in Kigali, Rwanda. The data are collected from pharmacies that use the Ishyiga point-of-sale software as a management tool and focus on antimalarial records. Furthermore, additional factors that influence malaria have been considered such as weather patterns. Monthly sales of antimalarial drugs are best predicted by cumulative rainfall from two months previously. Alongside the oscillations caused by the rainy seasons this novel monitoring system indicates a concerning recent upward trend in the number of cases. The system facilitates real-time monitoring and probabilistic forecasts that can both inform policymakers and help individuals that may want to take preventative medication during the most risky months of the year.