Sequential revision of belief: an application to complex decisionmaking situations
Entin, E.E.; Serfaty, D.
Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans, IEEE Transactions on
Volume 27, Issue 3, May 1997 Page(s):289 - 301
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/3468.568738
Summary:This research addresses the process of sequential revision of
beliefs or judgments in complex situations. The task domain, military
command and control, provides decision makers with opportunities to
revise their tactical judgments as streams of information flow in for
their consideration. A contrast-inertia model is proposed that describes
subject's sequential revision of beliefs exhibited by subjects and a
resulting order-effect that is observed when subjects attempt to
integrate pieces of confirming and disconfirming evidence. Two
experiments were conducted to test the predictions of the
contrast-inertia model and to investigate various aspects of the order
effect. The experiments manipulated the initial starting position or
anchor against which subjects contrast new evidence to revise their
beliefs. Results form both experiments showed strong recency and order
effects when subjects integrated inconsistent pieces of evidence
sequentially, regardless of the initial anchor. Moreover, the
contrast-inertia model fit the experimental data very well and confirmed
the basic assumptions predicting an order effect
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